On the back of sound macroeconomic policies and softer commodity prices, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures, said the Reserve Bank's annual report released on Tuesday. It, however, added that slowing global growth, protracted geopolitical tensions and a possible upsurge in financial market volatility following new stress events in the global financial system could pose downside risks to growth. "On the back of sound macroeconomic policies, softer commodity prices, a robust financial sector, a healthy corporate sector, continued fiscal policy thrust on quality of government expenditure, and new growth opportunities stemming from global realignment of supply chains, India's growth momentum is likely to be sustained in 2023-24 in an atmosphere of easing inflationary pressures," it said.
American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley on Thursday sharply cut its India FY23 real GDP growth estimate to 7.9 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. Analysts at the brokerage also raised their inflation forecast to 6 per cent - the upper end of the tolerance band for the RBI - and flagged stagflation risks because of the ongoing events. "We believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbate external risks and impart a stagflationary impulse to the economy," they said. It can be noted that stagflation involves a stagnancy in output or growth, coupled with high inflation.
A fan invasion in the opening match of the Olympic football tournament between Argentina and Morocco on Wednesday caused chaos, with Argentina eventually beaten 2-1 following a VAR review after play was suspended with the score tied at 2-2.
Against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) projection of 7.1 per cent, India's first quarter (Q1) 2024-25 (FY25) gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 6.7 per cent. This is in line with market expectations and significantly lower than the 7.8 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2023-24 (FY24) and 8.2 per cent in Q1FY24. The quarter witnessed decreased government consumption and investment spending due to the parliamentary election.
Market players attribute the rally in small and midcaps to flows from retail investors and domestic institutions.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn over Rs 12,000 crore from Indian equities this month so far, mainly due to a sustained rise in US bond yields and the uncertain environment resulting from the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, the story takes an intriguing turn on observing FPI activity in Indian debt as they have infused over Rs 5,700 crore into the debt market during the period under review, data with the depositories showed. Going ahead, the trajectory of FPIs' investments in India will be influenced not only by global inflation and interest rate dynamics but also by the developments and intensity of the Israel-Hamas conflict, Himanshu Srivastava, associate director - manager research, Morningstar Investment Adviser India, said.
After depreciating 0.32 per cent against the dollar in October so far, the rupee is expected to hold ground against the greenback in the current quarter on the back of robust inflows. According to the median of a Business Standard poll of 10 respondents, the rupee is seen trading around 84 per dollar till the end of December. "In India's case, at least the bond and cash related inflows will continue.
A procession of barges will take nearly 7,000 athletes along the river past Paris's most famous landmarks, while more than 300,000 spectators will watch from the banks.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected retail inflation to ease to 5.3 per cent in next fiscal from 6.5 per cent this year on assumptions of lower imported inflation, even though core inflation remains sticky. The RBI's inflation outlook for current fiscal has improved from 6.8 per cent projected earlier, to 6.5 per cent, on the back of steeper than expected decline in vegetable prices and Indian basket of crude at $95 a barrel. "Looking ahead, while inflation is expected to moderate in 2023-24, it is likely to rule above the 4 per cent target.
The S&P BSE Sensex tumbled 534 points to close at 25,627.
The country's exports edged up 1 per cent to $38.45 billion in December 2023 while the trade deficit narrowed to a three-month low of $19.8 billion, official data released on Monday showed. Imports declined by 4.85 per cent to $58.25 billion in December last year due to a dip in crude oil shipments. The previous low in trade deficit - the difference between imports and exports - was recorded in September at $19.37 billion.
United States President-elect Donald Trump's plan to overhaul the government with a new department headed by tech billionaire Elon Musk and Indian-origin entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy will be a biggest threat for China as it has to compete with far more efficient US political system, a policy advisor to the Chinese government said.
The increase in India's military spending was "mainly a result of growing personnel and operations costs" which made up almost 80 percent of the total military budget in 2023, the SIPRI report claimed.
'Trump will absolutely back New Delhi on its position that Pakistan must do more to crack down on terrorists that threaten India.'
Pro-Palestinian sympathies among fans have also spilt into stadiums as four Arab teams compete
'Forget your loss or profit in your portfolio.' 'Look at how much cash you have in hand.' 'If you don't have cash in hand, liquidate at least partially; get into about 20 per cent in cash.'
In a year bookended by intractable conflicts and geopolitical fragmentation, India focused on ramping up military prowess by broadly firming up defence procurement worth Rs 4.22 lakh crore even as Indian and Chinese militaries completed pulling back their troops from border face-off points in eastern Ladakh.
Global funds, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, are now beginning to pay more attention to India with the market now offering 30 companies with a market capitalisation over $25 billion.
Soured political relations between India and Pakistan have complicated matters
Only investors with a higher risk appetite should enter these funds.
The BSE Midcap and the BSE Smallcap indices pared all intraday gains to end 0.3% and 0.5% lower
ABB reported a weak quarter. Revenue was at Rs 2,910 crore, up only 5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), with operating profit at Rs 540 crore, up 23 per cent and net profit at Rs 440 crore.
Closely watched by the world for any escalation, the Iran-Israel conflict is already showing early signs of stress for India Inc - longer deliveries, doubling freight rates, extended working capital cycles, and higher costs. For those yet to feel the heat, there is growing apprehension and nervousness over future developments, observed industry executives.
The ministry of finance is likely to assume crude oil price to remain within $85 per barrel while estimating subsidies for the Interim Budget 2024-25 (FY25), to be presented on February 1. Brent crude prices moved up on Thursday, ending at $78.9 per barrel. Crude oil and cooking gas prices, which move in tandem, impact fertiliser and cooking gas subsidies, constituting 53 per cent of the government's total subsidies.
Geopolitical events, macroeconomic data and quarterly earnings of corporates would guide the stock market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Stock markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Ram Navami. "This week promises to be crucial for the market as fresh worries about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel emerge.
Funds raised by India Inc. through offshore loan syndication hit a 15-year high in 2023 with companies and banks raising $21.4 billion, the highest since 2007. The momentum is expected to continue in 2024 as well with over $4 billion fund raising expected in the first three months of this year. Companies raise funds, both onshore and offshore, depending on interest rates and activities. Funds raised offshore can be deployed in overseas activities.
Domestic equity gauges Sensex and Nifty extended their losing run for the third session in a row on Friday as participants remained cautious tracking other Asian markets amid geopolitical uncertainties in eastern Europe. After swinging about 700 points between gains and losses during the session, the BSE Sensex finally closed 59.04 points or 0.10 per cent lower at 57,832.97. On similar lines, the NSE Nifty edged lower by 28.30 points or 0.16 per cent to settle at 17,276.30.
Gold is usually seen as a safe-haven when stocks are falling or when inflation is rising. With prices of the yellow metal hovering near record highs, people are also putting off their jewellery purchases. Along with a subdued marriage season, the orders with price open and settled on delivery day, too, are getting cancelled. Apart from high, volatile prices, there is no gold rush yet for the safe-haven asset, crimping demand.
Wholesale price inflation remained in the negative territory for the fourth month in a row in July at (-)1.36 per cent, even though prices of food items, especially vegetables, skyrocketed. The inflation, however, has inched up from (-)4.12 per cent recorded in June fuelled by 62.12 per cent rise in vegetable prices. In July last year, wholesale price index (WPI) was 14.07 per cent.
'The long-term impact of elections is minimal.'
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday opted for a pause second time in a row, maintaining key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent as inflation moderates. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
A suspected Chinese spy balloon, said to be the size of three buses, was spotted over the United States' airspace, the Pentagon has said, a development that has further strained the already tense bilateral ties as Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday abruptly postponed his key visit to Beijing.
The BSE benchmark Sensex plummeted about 383 points to close at 57,300-level on Tuesday, tracking massive selloffs in global markets. After sinking about 1,300 points in early deals, the Sensex staged a sharp recovery but still ended 382.91 points or 0.66 per cent lower at 57,300.68. The NSE Nifty too reclaimed part of its early losses before closing 114.45 points or 0.67 per cent lower at 17,092.20. On the Sensex chart, Tata Steel, TCS and SBI fell the most, losing as much as 3.64 per cent. Of the 30 Sensex constituents, 20 closed in the red. "Escalations in Ukraine tensions with Russia recognising two pro-Russian rebel regions have aggravated the crisis. "The economic consequences are already visible in higher crude and gold prices," VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said.
"We have to stand in readiness to go beyond keeping Arjuna's eye to deploying policy instruments, if necessary" to contain inflation, said Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday. Headline consumer price index-based inflation projection for the second quarter of 2023-24 has been revised up substantially, primarily due to the price shock from vegetables, at 6.2 per cent by the RBI form 5.2 per cent estimated in June. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy, Governor Das said the moderation in headline inflation to 4.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2023-24 was in line with the projections set out in the June MPC meeting.
Asserting that it exercises a choice which it believes is in its national interest, India on Tuesday said it has no difficulties with Russia on servicing of military equipment and spare parts in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine.
Following are the highlights of the RBI's first monetary policy statement of 2022-23 unveiled by Governor Shaktikanta Das: Policy repo rate unchanged at 4%; marginal standing facility rate & bank rate too remain unchanged at 4.25%. Monetary stance to be accommodative with focus on withdrawal of accommodation to keep inflation within target. GDP growth projection for FY'23 slashed to 7.2% from 7.8%; growth projections based on assumption of crude oil (Indian basket) price at $100 a barrel during FY'23. Inflation forecast hiked to 5.7% for FY'23 from 4.5%.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday retained its growth projection at 7.2 per cent for the current fiscal on the back of improvement in urban demand and gradual recovery in rural India. Unveiling the third monetary policy for the current fiscal, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Indian economy remained resilient, and the central bank will continue to support growth. The RBI expects growth in the first quarter of the current fiscal at 16.2 per cent, which will taper to 4 per cent by the fourth quarter.
Several candidates, including Taranjit Singh Sandhu, the BJP's Amritsar candidate, are promising resumption of India-Pakistan trade via the Attari-Wagah land route.
'If you see another 1000-point correction, people may start panicking.'
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu termed it the 'largest cooperation project in our history', one that would 'change the face of the Middle East, Israel, and impact the entire world'.
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